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However, due to its role as a a state-owned bank, and ongoing scrutiny around betting in Brazil, Caixa has come under political pressure, and its launch in the market has been postponed on several occasions despite it having paid the BRL30 million ($5.9 million) licence fee.

In April, under pressure from Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Caixa postponed its launch until 2027 at the earliest.

Brazil is currently gearing up for a general election next month and Weizer said this had delayed Playtech’s launch in the regulated market, although he didn’t specifically name Caixa as its client.

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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

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Growth was strongest online, where remote casino, betting, and bingo GGY climbed 6.9% to £8.3 billion ($11.1 billion), compared with a modest 1.1% increase across land-based sectors.

This digital expansion coincided with a continued shrinkage in physical retail. Great Britain had 8,081 licensed premises at the end of the period, down 2% year-on-year.

Several operators have announced shop closures over recent months, including Entain and Flutter, citing a rising tax burden.