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About Forging Wilds
That impact, he argues, comes from preparation as much as product. Splash Tech works with partners to establish expectations and benchmark performance against relevant KPIs before launch. On the free-to-play side, the picture is similarly collaborative rather than automatic.
“Wherever there is investment from the operator or the platform in properly investing in the infrastructure needed to maximise the output of the product, we have seen great returns, ROI, on that investment,” Wilson says.
In other words, there is no magic “engagement” button. There are tools, expertise and an operator willing to put both to work.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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That widening breadth is vital for the industry at a time when some analysts estimate volume could jump to $10 trillion by 2035 – a projection that is largely rooted in other categories surpassing sports for the top spot.
Nearly a third of respondents told Fullstory that increased event contract breadth could compel them to consistently choose a prediction market over a sportsbook.
Sportsbook operators have an inherent advantage over prediction markets in that the former can offer significantly larger sign-up and retention bonuses and gaming companies are leaning into those expenditures this football season.
