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As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

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That study found that AI adoption across the gambling industry remained uneven. It highlighted customer support, data analytics, fraud detection, and responsible gaming as areas where the technology was already being heavily used.

However, it also found that formal governance of AI was struggling to keep pace with its growing usage. Only a minority of organizations surveyed reported having a formal AI strategy or roadmap. Many said one remained in development.

The MGA also found that only a small number of respondents had fully established AI risk assessment processes or incident-response plans.

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