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Lula said he intends to discuss the matter with his team and analyse potential measures to consider the social impact of online betting.
What the president does not acknowledge is that the government relies on revenue from the sector. In just the first seven months of 2026, BRL8.747 billion generated by sports betting has already flowed into public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service estimates the total could reach BRL16 billion by the end of the year. In 2025, nearly BRL9 billion was collected from sportsbooks.
The burning question is where such funds will come from if Lula shuts down the betting industry. Yet, no one points out to him that players will simply migrate to the illegal market. Betting will continue to exist, but without formal tax revenue, oversight or player protections.
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Stevenson Starks shared those concerns that the NCAA has towards online sports betting in the U.S.:
“The two [concerns] are the integrity of athletic competition, and how that could potentially be impacted by a proliferation of legalized sports wagering. And then the second is really the health and well-being of student athletes.“
Stevenson added that the NCAA is determined to keep local student organisations informed of key regulations.
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The remote gaming duty hike from 21% to 40% in April is also expected to have a significant impact on the black market, with Regulus estimating it could drive the market to be worth up to €1 billion, as consumers choose illegal offerings to access unrestricted bonuses.
Other studies have made similar estimations. In June last year two thirds of bettors surveyed by YouGov said the tax increase, which will also hit online sports betting from next year, would drive them to play with unlicensed operators.
The UK has historically maintained a high channelisation rate due to it being particuarly mature with a huge competitive offering. According to the report, up to 1,491 licensed sites provides sufficient choice for engaged players.
